The world spins so fast that even for the most experienced analyst what is currently happening is unpredictable. If you had asked me six months ago about the wars in North Africa, or the nuclear crisis in Japan, my answer would not begin to describe what is happening today. However, I think these events are intertwined through what some call: The new energy dictatorship.
First, the riots in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded with impressive speed and sent a message to the world that democracy was coming to North Africa. It is paradoxical that these insurrections soon after knocked on the doors of Libya and the results were not expected. General Muammar Gaddafi had no qualms about crushing the revolt in blood and fire. Gaddafi is a born survivor, is adapted to the circumstances and has a clear vision of its position in the world. Went from supporting terrorist groups, into alignment with the West when tagged to certain countries within the famous: Axis of Evil (the cartoon reminds me of "Super Friends"). It has also been involved with the pan-Arabism and Pan-Africanism, that is, always try to have the winning cards. From a standpoint of political realism, apart from the moral perspective, one can say that is a strategist with the feet on the ground.
Gaddafi knows he has an ace up his sleeve: oil, a valuable currency in a world addicted to it. Libyan oil is one of the highest quality worldwide, and in a world that moves mainly by the energy of hydrocarbons, Gaddafi has the upper hand. The dictator uses his privileged position and benefits from the petty feelings of European countries, and the shy, breathy voice of the United States. That is, nobody wants to anger the beast for it not to happen what happened in Kuwait when Saddam Hussein set fire to oil wells in retaliation by foreign intervention. No flaming bear to see such a valuable source of energy.
addition, the dictator has the luxury of threatening and say that in case of foreign intervention in Libya, will join Al-Qaeda war against the West. In those statements, the international community seems to try to look the other way and whistle, hoping that Gaddafi quick end the carnage. In my opinion, the foreign military presence ... is out of this conflict. Within the European Union, including Germany, considered to be of great caution in their actions because the no-fly zone proposal by French President Sarkozy, would be interpreted as military intervention. The politicization and ineffectiveness of the Security Council of the United Nations, once again shows that the veto is the seed of its ineffectiveness. Finally, the U.S. looks distracted when asked about the actions that will take NATO. I must admit there is nothing new in these attitudes, but does not mean they are good or much less than we have to get used to them.
Moreover, what happens in Libya has nothing to do with a movement for democracy, and is very different to what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. Insurgency fighters do not represent the Libyan people are Islamic militia groups and previously participated in the war in Afghanistan and later Iraq. The Libyan people are more concerned with getting the daily bread that support a national cause. That is, Libya has never been a nation is simply a territory where they live many tribes with very different objectives. Qaddafi is the same as Saddam Hussein represented in Iraq: a regime that can maintain order on the disorder. If Gadhafi is overthrown, there would be a territorial division that would affect the economic interests of the international community and generate widespread chaos, as is currently in Iraq. So, it is necessary to understand that western democracy does not work in Arab countries. In case of overthrowing the dictator, the only policy option that seems viable, and is still in gestation, is the example of Turkey.
While Gaddafi right and left riddled with the rebels in Libya, Japan suffered an earthquake which seriously affected its nuclear plants and is causing more environmental and humanitarian disaster. It is recalled that the Japan archipelago has no natural resources and was completely dependent on imported energy. Nuclear power was the answer they found the Japanese to produce their own electricity, but have had to pay a high price. Many countries have followed the example of Japan in a desperate attempt to stop relying on oil. Moreover, it is also a nuclear power source and a form of international deterrence, as the case of Iran and Israel. Many countries still follow the outdated Cold War pattern for a voice in world politics, even by force and with serious consequences.
That is, the world is not governed money, not politics or even religion ... it directs the energy, in any form. You can live without money, but never without power. The great fortunes of the world have invested in nuclear projects, oil and wind. However, after the events in Japan's nuclear energy investment falters and everyone ponders its convenience. Given this, one can say that Seven Sisters owners of the world (referring to the oil companies) continue to consolidate power through a dictatorship of oil, which is not ready to be overthrown by the hope of renewable energy. Do you? ...
Under this scenario, and returning to Libya, Qaddafi has everything to gain. It is interesting to see the great evacuation of Chinese citizens there in Libya after the war exploded, reveals the huge china addiction on Libyan oil. The all-powerful club of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries), is directed by the relationship global energy, and because they say, the dictatorship energy. Moreover, after the ecological disaster in the United States produced by British Petroleum, merely extracting oil from beneath the seas. Mexico is a major hit, it could enter the club of OPEC if it can exploit the large reserves that have been discovered in deep waters. Remains to be seen whether this would have the quality Libyan oil or dirt from Venezuela or Iraq.
countries that have oil extraction "Tierra Adentro" still have the control the world. Venezuela is a major oil producer, however, as mentioned, is a very heavy with large amounts of sulfur, and requires a particular refinement. Only two refining plants for this type of oil and are in the United States. Ironic. Nobody wants Hugo Chavez to finance the construction of its own refining plant, even China. Again, ironic. Under this scenario, the West has its eyes on Africa and many experts even believe that there is a secret to great voices in Western Sahara. Theories arise that there are large oil deposits in this area, and around the Sahara and AS is the sleeve of the European countries, in an emergency. Anyone interested in the situation of the Saharawi people? As Europe goes Generation IV promoting agreements with "democratic clauses" because question but the case.
Under this scenario also asked whether in Latin America, with our historical experience, you still believe in the global powers really support democracy? Or is it simply the vehicle that best suits your needs in the energy dictatorship? Is the world concerned about the tsunami victims in Japan or from nuclear reactors in danger of melting? For Latin America is necessary to observe with open eyes what is happening in the world, because we live in it, and are part of this power game. Can not control power without power or outside it, we must take a proactive stance to avoid being pawns in the chess world.
Finally, I just want to add that which occurs in Libya can stall the process that began in Egypt and Tunisia. Gaddafi to stay in power, which is most likely, be an example to the other dictators of the world in future mercilessly crush revolutionary movements. What happens in Libya is to reflect on the double standard of world powers, and what really matters in the world today: Energy. If Libya had no oil, there would be civil war and NATO would have taken to Gaddafi on the second day of fighting. We are witnessing a world dictatorship at all levels, is nothing new, and is most evident in the eyes of more and more citizens. I do not say with resignation but with the hope that the information societies can help stop this circus that has become humanity. New technologies give you the opportunity to the citizen be an active part of what happens, and is a tool for change if used correctly. The Internet is more powerful than any dictatorship energy, and is now in the hands of citizens .
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